Hurst Says....turn has started

GDX Cycles Say

These are the 5/10/20 week cycles.
The 5 and 10 week cycles are pulling down.

Here is the McCl Osc for Gold:

A Very Special Moement when Hurst Cycle jives with EW

SPX could have another plunge coming:

GOLD: Not a Bear to be Seen

The "Bugs" are at it again, competing as to who can project the highest Gold Price:

Meanwhile the COT for GOld is ever highest:

The Gold cycles shows a severe correction comes:

(Chart by: SwingTradeCycles blog)

It's ALL about the the Top + Prettiest Bearish/Bullish Wicks and a Fib Exercise that made my TGIF!

GDX: Grave Stone Candle

A top is not an event, it's a process. To that end, today saw GDX spike up to $20.88 and it then reversed to negative. The price basically returned to the focal point where the green trend lines all point to! Coincidence? This price level therefore could have importance to GDX reversing.

• The failed spike also generated a candlestick gravestone price bar for the day.
• Note the massive diverging Stochastics...did GDX think it could sustain a new high while stochastics dropped towards 70?

Would you be a BUYER or SELLER of GDX?

GLD: The "Prettiest Bearish Wick" !!!

If there ever was the prettiest Bearish Wick, you can see one on GLD with today's spike outside of the top trend line and prompt snap back inside. Joe Friday says: This is VERY BEARISH!  Potential price actions are shown in Red and Green arrows.

Is this the time to BUY or SELL GLD?

SPX:

I was asked by a friend where I thought the SPX top might be and so did some Fib measurements:

• If this is a retrace, it certainly has the form and pattern of an ABC correction (see count below).
• My math shows that wave (c) is often 1.38 to 1.618 of wave (a) 
• Obviously SPX overshot the 1.38 at 1989
• So, 1x1.618 (A) + 1890 = 2006.49
• SPX hit 2009 and promptly reversed to sub 2k at 1999
• Since March 1, the stochastics moved downward while price went higher....this kind of divergence should get us techies excited!
• (c) could retrace 1.786 of (a), so go higher.....I've seen such unbelievable price moves where the stochastics scrape the top 95% for weeks and weeks. For example the late Sept to Nov rally...that was a doozy for the bears!

Most importantly, IF this is Wave 2 that's topping, then there is a real serious potential for a Wave 3 of 3 market crash potential. The point of recognition by the bulls could occur and selling intensify beyond what the PPT (Plunge Protection Team) can handle.

Regardless, is this the time to BUY or SELL SPX at this level? Would you stay long and buy more SPX for the last remaining potential 50 to 75 SPX points up? Consider the Risk to Reward given the current indicators.

UVXY:

A Bullish Wick for UVXY....see below...would you BUY or SELL UVXY here?

• Note the prior Bearish Wick on UVXY and the resulting damage it did.
• Now, note the bullish wick in the bottom...what will that do to the price of UVXY?

Chart Thoughts

GDX: Trend lines seem to point to the same price point...coincidence?
Observe the MASSIVE divergence on stochastics from Feb to present...sustainable?
The same for the MACD severe overbought condition.

Are these the conditions to be taking new BUY or SELL actions for GDX?

GLD: IF GLD decisively breaks out of the upper channel, I'll be a Gold BULL but no decisive break of this upper channel line has happened since June 2013! Also, the circle highlighted stochastics that clearly show present and past overbought conditions....were these when you BUY or SELL gold? Keeping it SIMPLE usually brings you closer to following the trend...which is smarter.

I'm not saying Gann lines or fans or whatever don't work but sometimes I see charts with so many lines it's chaotic. Keeping it simple for me works best.

Next week's COT data might show a nose bleeding increase in the level of commercial shorts in Gold.

Here is SPX....daily Stochastics are at 99.93....sustainable? Note the circled stochastics at overbought levels. Were those BUY or SELL times?

Note also, the retrace is almost exactly at the 0.618 golden ratio. If EW counters call this Wave 2; it's quite beautiful on the retrace as most Wave 2 retrace .5 to .618 about 70% of times. Even if it's not Wave 2...a correction is coming.

So, when you see a correction on the SPX is due, consider looking at the VIX. Below is the UVXY chart. It's trend lines are clearly a megaphone pattern. The bottom trend line support still holds.

The Stochastics are at 0.8 !!!! That is NOT susatinable!

Note the circled stochastic oversold regions....were these BUY or SELL indicators for UVXY?

Some say analyzing the ETF of VIX or a leveraged ETF is not fruitful. So, below is the VIX chart.

Observe the support line which still holds and the megaphone pattern.

Observe also that the daily stochastics is at 1.8 !!! Not sustainable.

The circled areas of the stochastics....were those BUY or SELL vix indicators?

Last but not least, the McClellan Oscillator is a whopping 332.15 !!!! NUTS!
Is this when you go LONG the SPX? Or, do you SELL your Long SPX positions and go SHORT?
At this Mc OSc levels, even if I was on hallucinogenics, I couldn't buy SPX.

This Yellow is showing signs of exhaustion!

Gold MACD is nose bleeding overbought!
Stochastics have been diverging and now nose diving towards the ground.
Very good read from Clive:
http://www.safehaven.com/article/40604/silver-breaks-lower-gold-and-pm-stocks-set-to-plunge


Should gold break 1220; I believe a very harsh crash could be experienced.